The National Pest Management Association (NPMA) has released its forecast for the fall and winter months. According to the NPMA’s bi-annual Bug Barometer forecast, milder-than-normal temperatures could extend pest activity well into the fall and even winter months across much of the United States.
The forecast, developed by NPMA’s team of board-certified entomologists, analyzes long-term weather predictions and pest biology to provide region-specific insights for the coming months.
Dr. Jim Fredericks, BCE, said in a release, “Typically, pest activity tends to slow after the first official freeze. But when colder temperatures are delayed, pests like ants, mosquitoes, and ticks continue to thrive, putting people and pets at risk for longer than expected.”
This fall, NPMA is cautioning pest management professionals (PMPs) and homeowners alike to stay vigilant as shifting weather conditions could lead to more pest encounters and a greater potential spread of West Nile virus and tick-borne illnesses like Lyme disease, babesiosis and alpha-gal syndrome. When colder weather arrives, it’ll likely push disease-carrying rodents indoors. Pests like mice and rats can carry over 35 diseases, including hantavirus, leptospirosis and the plague.
NPMA’s Fall & Winter 2025 Bug Barometer predictions include:
Mid-Atlantic & New England (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, D.C., Virginia):
A milder, drier winter could extend activity for ants and mosquitoes. Below-average snowfall and fewer deep freezes could mean an increase in ticks, leading to more encounters next spring.
Intermountain & Southwest (New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, California):
Mild fall and winter weather could keep desert pests like scorpions and spiders active longer. Once cooler conditions arrive, rodents will likely seek shelter indoors.
South Central (Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas):
An unseasonably warm fall will likely cause mosquitoes to linger later into the season, while the late onset of winter temperatures may drive more rodents indoors seeking food and shelter.
North Central (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, Wyoming):
Rodents may hold off on finding shelter indoors due to warmer-than-usual fall and winter conditions, only heading inside once temperatures drop. At the same time, less snow this winter could allow ticks to thrive through the season, leading to more encounters next spring.
Great Lakes, Ohio Valley & Midwest (West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota):
Ants and spiders may survive longer thanks to unseasonably warm and dry conditions. When temperatures drop, it could drive invasive brown marmorated stink bugs indoors to seek shelter.
Southeast (North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Florida)
A colder, drier winter could prompt rodents to seek shelter indoors earlier. These same conditions may also bring mosquito activity down, providing welcome relief to residents.
Northwest (Idaho, Washington, Oregon):
Summer pests like ants, flies and cockroaches will likely stick around later this fall, and mild, dry conditions may set the stage for more frequent tick encounters through the winter.
Take Action Before Pests Come Inside
With pest activity extending beyond typical seasonal patterns, NPMA emphasizes the importance of working with a qualified pest control professional who can provide targeted solutions for each region’s specific challenges.
Fredericks added, “These extended pest seasons require professional expertise to properly identify, treat, and prevent infestations. Homeowners shouldn’t wait until they see pests to take action; proactive pest management is key to protecting families and homes.”
Fall pest-proofing tips for your customers
– Seal entry points around windows, doors, and foundation cracks
– Remove standing water sources like leaks under sinks, clogged gutters or old birdbath water
– Keep areas clean of food debris and matter
– Trim vegetation away from the home’s exterior
– Store firewood at least 20 feet from the house
– Schedule regular inspections with a qualified pest control professional
About the National Pest Management Association
The National Pest Management Association (NPMA), a non-profit organization with more than 4,000 members, was established in 1933 to support the pest management industry’s commitment to the protection of public health, food and property from the diseases and dangers of pests. The association has had many notable leaders over the years, including Pest Management Professional Hall of Famers Bill Buettner (Class of 1998), Dr. Ralph Heal (Class of 2003), Dr. Phil Spear (Class of 2004), and Bob Rosenberg (Class of 2013), to name just a few.
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